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1 Social prediction: a new research paradigm based on ...
https://journalofchinesesociology.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40711-021-00152-z
In summary, prediction is the main component of realizing the scientific research goal of quantitative sociology. Among correlation, causality, ...
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2 Prediction in the Social Sciences - JSTOR
https://www.jstor.org/stable/184546
(I) A major reason for the absence of a science of society is that we have failed to isolate many important social variables. It is because we have neglected ...
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3 Social science research: failed predictions - Netivist
https://netivist.org/debate/social-science-research-failed-predictions
Social science research helps us better understand society. However, failed predictions are also common. Why do social scientists get it wrong so often?
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4 PREDICTION (Social Science)
http://what-when-how.com/social-sciences/prediction-social-science/
The reason for our inability to be as successful at predicting human behavior as we are with predictions made in physics and astronomy is due to our failure to ...
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5 12 Weber and the Problem of Social Science Prediction
https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.3138/9781442684553-014/pdf
Perhaps most famously, Randall Collins was one of the tiny handful of social scientists to predict well in advance the. Page 4. Weber and Social Science ...
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6 Prediction in Social Science - PhilArchive
https://philarchive.org/archive/FLEPIS
Part 1 provides a thumbnail sketch of the. HRM-P paradigm and clarifies some issues surrounding the notions of sci- ence (or scientism) and prediction. Part 2 ...
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7 Social sciences, prediction in
https://www.rep.routledge.com/articles/thematic/social-sciences-prediction-in/v-1
Prediction is important in science for two reasons. First human beings have a practical interest in knowing the future. Therefore, all science is ...
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8 What failure to predict life outcomes can teach us - PMC - NCBI
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7165448/
Prediction is not a typical goal in the social sciences despite recent arguments that it should be (6). Social scientists focus on inference: ...
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9 A Pragmatist's Guide to Using Prediction in the Social ... - OSF
https://files.osf.io/v1/resources/tjkcy/providers/osfstorage/606d9170f6585f029a6188c0?action=download&direct&version=2
Many social scientists confuse prediction with unneces- ... Prediction can, amongst other things, solve this problem.
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10 From explanation of the past to prediction of the future: A ...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291122000237
Business and Psychology research (and the Social Sciences, in general) is heavily biased toward explaining the past. The holy grail in such ...
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11 Prediction and explanation in social systems - Science
https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.aal3856
Third, predictive accuracy and interpretability must be recognized as complements, not substitutes, when evaluating explanations. Resolving these three issues ...
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12 Social sciences: Between theory and intuition
https://www.mpg.de/208630/social_sciences
The word is now spreading that the social sciences are incapable of making so-called point predictions – predictions about individual cases. Point predictions, ...
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13 Epistemological Limits to Scientific Prediction: The Problem of ...
https://www.scirp.org/html/5-1650391_51169.htm
A key issue regarding the reliability of scientific prediction is uncertainty, which also affects its possibility as scientific knowledge.
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14 (PDF) Social prediction: a new research paradigm based on ...
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354290210_Social_prediction_a_new_research_paradigm_based_on_machine_learning
scientific standards; that is, the science must be able to make predictions. ... natural science, theories and data of social science were rarely ...
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15 Prediction in science and policy
https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/1999.09.pdf
Here, we try to dissect and define the problem of prediction in policy in a way that ... predictions become fundamental to the social sciences.
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16 Identification Problems in the Social Sciences - Amazon.com
https://www.amazon.com/Identification-Problems-Social-Sciences-Charles/dp/0674442849
This book provides a language and a set of tools for finding bounds on the predictions that social and behavioral scientists can logically make from ...
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17 Prediction and Explanation in Social Science — Duncan Watts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O6COXI0cx8
Cornell CSES
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18 Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific ...
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1915006117
These researchers used machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, and they drew on a vast dataset that was painstakingly collected by social scientists ...
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19 Solving the Problem of “Obviousness” with Prediction Platforms
https://behavioralscientist.org/solving-the-problem-of-obviousness-with-prediction-platforms/
In the fall issue of Public Opinion Quarterly in 1949, sociologist Paul Lazarsfeld pulled one of my favorite social science head fakes of ...
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20 Prediction | Encyclopedia.com
https://www.encyclopedia.com/philosophy-and-religion/other-religious-beliefs-and-general-terms/miscellaneous-religion/prediction
PredictionTechniques of social prediction [1]Current problems [2]BIBLIOGRAPHY [3]In sociological writing the term “prediction” means a stated expectation ...
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21 Full article: Is agent-based modelling the future of prediction?
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13645579.2022.2137923?src=
The first identifies key elements of social science prediction induced from real research across disciplines, thus avoiding a straw person ...
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22 1 1 Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough
https://academic.oup.com/book/5413/chapter/148244438
Social scientists have overemphasized statistical data analysis, often limiting their logical models to prediction of the direction of effect, oblivious of its ...
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23 Prediction (forthcoming in The Philosophy of Science
https://cpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com/faculty.sites.uci.edu/dist/c/104/files/2016/10/Prediction.pdf
This idea that scientific prediction involves risk led Karl Popper (1963) ... The Scottish Empiricist David Hume may have posed the problem of the rational.
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24 What is the point of social sciences when they fail to make ...
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-point-of-social-sciences-when-they-fail-to-make-accurate-predictions
Social sciences have never been more relevant than in our present time. They may fail to make accurate predictions, but the data they're able to gather are ...
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25 Philosophy of Social Science
https://iep.utm.edu/soc-sci/
It will begin by examining the question of whether social inquiry can – or should – have the same aims and use the same methods as the natural sciences. This is ...
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26 AI and the Social Sciences: Why All Variables are Not Created ...
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11158-022-09544-5
The example discussed here is recidivism prediction, where the factors that are of interest are difficult to capture adequately through ...
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27 Method, Generalization, and Prediction in Social Psychology.
https://brocku.ca/MeadProject/Young/Young_1933.html
If social psychology is to be a science it must conform to the criteria of other ... On the other hand, we dare not dismiss as useless the problems of ...
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28 Prediction and explanation in social systems
https://www.csee.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/691/spring21/pdf/486.full.pdf
Historically, social scientists have sought out explanations of human and social ... its, consider again the problem of predicting diffusion cascades.
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29 [PDF] Computational Social Science: Discovery and Prediction
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Computational-Social-Science%3A-Discovery-and-Alvarez/3da07cba49f73032d16399793e55fc3eb3b8d3d6
The empiricist's challenge: Asking meaningful questions in political science in the age of big data · Big data in psychology: Introduction to the special issue.
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30 Text Analysis in Python for Social Scientists
https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/text-analysis-in-python-for-social-scientists/54B82AEA3FB586919A2265E6799ACB11
Automated prediction methods can infer these quantities (sentiment analysis is probably the most well-known application). However, there is virtually no limit ...
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31 Prediction and Explanation in Social Science - NYU Law
https://www.law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/upload_documents/Duncan%20Watts.pdf
Yet when social scientists evaluate explanations, causal validity is often not. (properly) established. – Causal inference is hard, and required assumptions ...
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32 The Value of Imprecise Prediction
https://quod.lib.umich.edu/p/ptpbio/16039257.0012.004?view=text;rgn=main
In fields such as Business, Management and some social sciences, imprecise predictions are the results of qualitative research methods such as interviews, ...
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33 The Uncertain Sciences - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/books/first/m/mazlish-sciences.html?scp=6&sq=%22Hari%20Seldon%22&st=cse
In this chapter, where the general problem is posed, I shall arrange what I ... The reductio ad absurdum of this belief in social science prediction can be ...
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34 PhilSci-Archive - Prediction, history and political science
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/19319/1/forth%20Politl%20handook%2C%20%27Prediction%2C%20history%27.pdf
Further evidence for the ubiquity of causal fragility is the ubiquity of the problem of external validity. In social science, external validity can rarely ...
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35 Announcing the launch of the Social Science Prediction Platform
https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/announcing-launch-social-science-prediction-platform
Collecting and recording predictions systematically can help us understand how results relate to our prior beliefs, as well as how we can ...
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36 Reactivity, Prediction and Intervention in the Human Sciences
https://enposs.eu/events/workshop-reactivity-prediction-and-intervention-in-the-human-sciences/
Both philosophers and social scientists have been worrying about social ... To what extent is reactivity a problem for prediction and/or ...
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37 Prediction in Science - Bibliography - PhilPapers
https://philpapers.org/browse/prediction-in-science
Technological Revolutions and the Problem of Prediction.Nick Bostrom - forthcoming - Nanoethics: The Ethical and Social Implications of Nanotechnology.
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38 The link-prediction problem for social networks | Journal of the ...
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/1241540.1241551
We formalize this question as the link-prediction problem, and we... ... Evolution of the social network of scientific collaboration. Physica A, 311(3-4), ...
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39 What's Wrong with Social Science and How to Fix It
https://fantasticanachronism.com/2020/09/11/whats-wrong-with-social-science-and-how-to-fix-it/
The studies were sourced from all social science disciplines (economics, psychology, sociology, management, etc.) and were published between ...
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40 Predicting Social Systems – a Challenge
https://rofasss.org/2019/11/04/predicting-social-systems-a-challenge/
There is a lot of pressure on social scientists to predict. Not only is an ability to predict implicit in all requests to assess or optimise ...
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41 The logic of prediction in psychology. - APA PsycNet
https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1945-00030-001
An insistent problem is concerned with the relative accuracy of clinical versus ... Social Science Research Council, Committee on Social Adjustment. (1941).
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42 Predictive social science - Soc Stats Reading Group
https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/bstewart/files/prediction.pdf
Challenge 1: What kind of science is it? It's not obvious how prediction fits into what quantitative social science already does.
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43 The Link-Prediction Problem for Social Networks
https://cs.carleton.edu/faculty/dlibenno/papers/link-prediction/link.pdf
The Link-Prediction Problem for Social Networks. ∗. David Liben-Nowell. Department of Computer Science. Carleton College. Northfield, MN 55057 USA.
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44 Prediction, Machine Learning, and Individual Lives
https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/uan1b4m9
More specifically, the Fragile Families Challenge builds on the Fragile ... MS: Although it is not typically used in the social sciences, ...
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45 Social Science Prediction Platform (@socscipredict) / Twitter
https://twitter.com/socscipredict
The Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP) enables researchers to collect and contribute to forecasts of ... Unclaimed funds is a $50B challenge in .
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46 Prediction - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction
Prediction · 1 Opinion · 2 Statistics · 3 Science. 3.1 Hypothesis · 4 Finance · 5 Sports · 6 Social science · 7 Prophecy · 8 Fiction ...
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47 Exploring Limits to Prediction in Complex Social Systems
https://cs.stanford.edu/people/ashton/pubs/limpred.pdf
spite of a recent profusion of prediction studies that ex- ploit online social and ... the question by presenting a simple stylized model of suc-.
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48 Machine Learning for Social Sciences - UPF
https://www.upf.edu/documents/3966940/230051794/syllabus.pdf/51598bce-4d44-1c2b-c1ae-5f67716f2812
We will end the course with a prediction challenge that will put to test all of your acquired knowledge. Starting with a discussion on the role of predictive ...
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49 d d nv - DTIC
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD0662590.pdf
making of social predictions and the events about which the predictions ... The problem of the way in which a prediction can affect the event.
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50 Machine Learning for Social Science: An Agnostic Approach
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-polisci-053119-015921
machine learning is applied to social scientific data, it is used to discover ... For example, the ImageNet Challenge, a prediction.
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51 "The History Of The Prediction Paradox" (1970)
http://www.wright.edu/~gordon.welty/Prediction_70.htm
Whether he will or not is a theoretic problem of social psychology or the sociology of science. But Buck thinks he is engaging in methodological considerations.
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52 Social Studies · Predicting the Future - The World Scholar's Cup
https://www.scholarscup.org/subjects/2017/social-studies/
How often do unforeseeable events obstruct otherwise accurate predictions? Have you ever made a prediction only to have something completely unexpected ...
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53 Why does social science matter? - Understanding Society
https://understandingsociety.blogspot.com/2012/12/why-does-social-science-matter.html
So prediction is very limited in the social realm. What about control? Once we have done some theorizing about a social process or problem, ...
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54 Prediction in Research - Science tries to predict future events
https://explorable.com/prediction-in-research
Prediction in research fulfills one of the basic desires of humanity, to discern the future and know what fate holds. Such foresight used to involve ...
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55 Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social ...
http://www.ellahofman.com/pdfs/integrating-prediction-and-explanation.pdf
Computational social science is more than just large repositories of ... attention on the prediction problems that matter most and encourage.
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56 Chapter 4 Theories in Scientific Research
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-hccc-research-methods/chapter/chapter-4-theories-in-scientific-research/
Prediction requires only correlations. In contrast, explanations require causations , or understanding of cause-effect relationships. Establishing causation ...
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57 Announcing the Launch of the Social Science Prediction ...
https://evavivalt.com/2020/07/announcing-the-launch-of-the-social-science-prediction-platform
1. Popularize the ex ante prediction of research results · 2. Solve the coordination problem inherent in gathering forecasts · 3. Gather panel ...
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58 Prediction Policy Problems - American Economic Association
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/abs/10.1257/aer.p20151023
decision, prediction problems only require low ... Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science. Nature. 595:7866, 181-188.
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59 Where are the predictions in sociology? - Bad Hessian
https://badhessian.org/2012/11/where-are-the-predictions-in-sociology/
If the success of these models in forecasting the election results is seen as a victory for social science, why don't sociologists emphasize ...
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60 Why a Philosophy of Social Science?
https://faculty.washington.edu/lynnhank/pss.pdf
question helps us organize and fit together all these other distinctive problems of the particular social sciences. Progress and Prediction.
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61 Data-Driven Computational Social Network Science - Frontiers
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fdata.2021.591749/full
In this article, we address this issue and argue that the combination of big social data with social networks is needed for creating prediction ...
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62 Identification Problems in the Social Sciences
https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674442849
This book provides a language and a set of tools for finding bounds on the predictions that social and behavioral scientists can logically ...
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63 Using Data Science to Solve Social Science Dilemmas | RTI
https://www.rti.org/insights/using-data-science-solve-social-science-dilemmas
Exploring the promises and problems of big data at the Summer ... Study to train machine learning algorithms to predict social outcomes like ...
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64 A Guide to Solving Social Problems with Machine Learning
https://hbr.org/2016/12/a-guide-to-solving-social-problems-with-machine-learning
But many social-sector decisions do not hinge on a prediction. Sometimes we are asking whether some new policy or program works – that is, ...
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65 Induction, Experimentation and Causation in the Social ...
https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1622175/FULLTEXT02
Keywords: induction problem; natural versus social science; ... and ability to make predictions in the social world is that we often think ...
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66 The Value of Social Sciences in Weather Research
https://www.weather.gov/gjt/PeakToValleyWin15V2_SocialScience
By watching the process, the social scientist can see those tacit aspects of the forecasters' work that are no longer apparent to them, such as the different ...
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67 Organizing Your Social Sciences Research Paper
https://libguides.usc.edu/writingguide/theoreticalframework
Theories are formulated to explain, predict, and understand phenomena and, in many cases, to challenge and extend existing knowledge within ...
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68 Are there laws of history? - Aeon
https://aeon.co/essays/if-history-was-more-like-science-would-it-predict-the-future
Does the problem lie in the act of storytelling itself? ... historical social science' or 'cliodynamics' – the science of history.
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69 The Theory is Predictive, but is it Complete? An Application to ...
https://economics.northwestern.edu/docs/events/nemmers/2018/liang1.pdf
In each case, an instance i of the prediction problem consists of a ... We demonstrate below a non-trivial social science domain—human ...
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70 Prediction oriented behavioral research and its relationship to ...
https://psyarxiv.com/7uha4/download
We argue that the common methods used by social and behavioral scientists to ... these practices, a problem can arise because following these common ...
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71 PREDICT - dsps.unibo.it. - Università di Bologna
https://dsps.unibo.it/en/research/research-pojects/european-projects/predict-the-future-of-prediction-the-social-consequences-of-algorithmic-forecast-in-insurance-medicine-and-policing
The algorithmic turn of prediction, connected with Big Data and Machine Learning, presents an exciting and urgent challenge for the social sciences.
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72 Social science and social problems - Understanding Society
https://undsoc.org/2008/02/17/social-science-and-social-problems/
In short — these are problems that are much more challenging, intellectually and practically, than decoding the human genome or controlling a ...
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73 Psychology Studies Often Can't Be Reproduced : Shots - NPR
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/08/27/642218377/in-psychology-and-other-social-sciences-many-studies-fail-the-reproducibility-te
As part of the reproducibility study, about 200 social scientists were surveyed and asked to predict which results would stand up to the re-test ...
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74 The problem of underestimating the importance of social ...
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2021/10/25/the-problem-of-underestimating-the-importance-of-social-sciences-for-pandemic-policy/
The social sciences can also help to improve epidemiological predictions on a methodological level. One of the thorniest problems in ...
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75 Social Science and Its Methods
https://www.pearsonhighered.com/assets/samplechapter/0/2/0/5/0205702716.pdf
Discuss some reasonable approaches to problems in social science ... Economics seeks to explain, guide, and predict social arrangements by which we satisfy ...
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76 The Link Prediction Problem for Social Networks
https://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/link-pred.pdf
understanding the relative effectiveness of network proximity measures adapted from techniques in graph theory, computer science, and the social ...
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77 Did John Dewey Put Prediction into Action?
https://culturecog.blog/2020/12/05/did-john-dewey-put-prediction-into-action/comment-page-1/
Prediction does not appear, at first, to be something that a sociologist, or really any analyst of anything, can safely ascribe to those (or ...
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78 Prediction Versus Accommodation and the Risk of Overfitting
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1093/bjps/55.1.1
Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of ... the vexed problem of understanding the epistemic difference between prediction and ...
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79 Data-driven Computational Social Science: A Survey - arXiv
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.12372
The scale of problems that social scientists study ranges from micro to ... individuals' investment behaviors or predict global economic ...
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80 The paradox of prediction - Mapping Ignorance
https://mappingignorance.org/2014/09/03/paradox-prediction/
The question is, hence, why are we legitimate to think (if we are) that a theory that makes good predictions is more probably right (or ...
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81 Machine Learning for Public Policy Making. How to Use Data
https://www.ibei.org/ibei_studentpaper46_162056.pdf
Due to its excellent prediction abilities, it has recently gained traction in economics, statistics and social sciences. Real-world problems machine ...
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82 Big data, prediction, and scientism in the social sciences
https://egtheory.wordpress.com/2014/04/13/social-sciences/
The real issue is with using the undue authority of science to drive social change. If you don't think scientific has authority in society ...
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83 Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists
https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ForecastingMethods-225-Last-Wk-Paper-1312018.pdf
For most forecasting problems, several of the methods will be usable, and should ... Social scientists rediscovered the method in the 1960s, and tested its ...
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84 What Are the Social Sciences? | BestColleges
https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/what-is-social-science/
We answer your question about earning a social science degree career outlook, ... For example, economists rely on statistics and forecasting to understand ...
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85 The Power of Prediction with Social Media
https://repository.wellesley.edu/islandora/object/ir%3A124/datastream/PDF/download
issues in predicting future outcomes using social media data that are far from being settled, and deeper studies and experiments are required to discover ...
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86 The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/
A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and ... The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social ...
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87 Aldridge: Prediction in Sociology
https://www.socresonline.org.uk/4/3/aldridge.html
'Among the slogans used by a variety of schools of social science, ... The Social Animal, (Runciman 1999) confronts the issue of prediction.
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88 The link‐prediction problem for social networks - Liben‐Nowell
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asi.20591
There are many reasons exogenous to the network why two scientists who have never written an article together will do so in the next few years: ...
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89 Everyone Was Wrong on the Pandemic's Societal Impact
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/18/pandemic-social-science-predictions-wrong/
These findings were unexpected by many, including the experts in human behavior and social dynamics in our studies, whose predictions turned out ...
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90 Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of ...
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2015/11/09/using-prediction-markets-to-estimate-the-reproducibility-of-scientific-research/
› 2015/11/09 › u...
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91 It Doesn't Take a Scientist To See Through Implausible ...
https://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/laypeople-predict-replication
Previous studies showed that individuals with a PhD in the social sciences can predict replication findings with above-chance accuracy.
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92 Neural Networks and Crime Prediction - Social Sciences - MDPI
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/10/1/4
Share and Cite ... Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here. Article Metrics.
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93 Can Machine Learning Be Useful for Social Science?
http://citiespapers.ssrc.org/can-machine-learning-be-useful-for-social-science/
Consider the following example of the (potentially Minority-Report-ish) problem of predicting criminal recidivism, based on age, criminal ...
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94 The political life of prediction. The future as a space of ...
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01361235/file/andersson-rindzeviciute-2012-the-political-life-of-prediction-the-future-as-a-space-of-scientific-world-governance-in-the-cold-war-era.pdf
Problems to do with prediction, futurity and anticipation are rapidly coming to the forefront of social science in a range of different ...
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95 Explanation, Prediction, And Causality: Three Sides Of The ...
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/publication/explanation-prediction-and-causality-three-sides-of-the-same-coin/
First, we reiterate previous arguments (Kleinberg et al 2015) that forecasting problems are more common in social science than is often ...
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96 The Use of surveys to predict behaviour
https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000059601
Dr. W I L L I A M B U C H A N A N , Social Science Research Center, ... been so naïve about the problems of predicting political behaviour and so unaware of ...
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